Restart the clock. We’re back in the Bundesliga

Hamburger SV were in the Bundesliga for a very long time. So long, that they installed a huge digital clock showing everyone exactly how long they’d been there for. To the very second! A massive fifty four years!

They were so proud that a miniature version was even installed on the team coach.

Of course, all good things come to an end. After three years of narrowly avoiding relegation they finally lost their place in the Bundesliga in 2018. The inevitable had happened.

And the fans weren’t happy.

However, thanks to a Bakery Jatta goal snatching the 2. Bundesliga title away from Schalke 04, they’re back in the big league. Final day drama indeed.

To avoid scenes like the above we need to be smart with our squad building, transfer policy and financial management. There’s still s a £40 million debt which needs paying off before the club is plunged into serious financial difficulties. The £14 million prize money for winning our division will help but there’s still more to be done.

However, for now it’s safe to say: Reset the clock.

Bundesliga Season expectations

I’m happy with these objectives. The club culture demands suit me perfectly. My first instinct is to be defensively solid and one of the advantages a three-at-the-back system gives is extra height for set pieces.

We’ll also hope to be able to work within the wage budget, thanks to our system which was covered previously. One of the things to be wary of after promotion is that wages can quickly spiral. Existing players get promotion wage rises and new players, naturally, want more money.

The most important signing?

The first signing I made could very well turn out to be the most important. Our existing Director of Football, Michael Mutzel, was on an expiring contract so I took the opportunity to make an upgrade.

As the Director of Football is a role I rely heavily upon, I needed to ensure we have the best possible person at the club. The search began for a top DoF who would come and work with a team expected to be embroiled in a relegation scrap. Luckily, I managed to tempt Massimo Taibi away from Reggiana.

I’m very confident he’ll be able to find some top talent, with his good scouting stats. His negotiation ability should mean he can tempt some good players to Hamburg and potentially on lower wages than his predecessor could’ve.

Transfer requirements

Clearly, if we want to avoid relegation we need to invest in some new players. Unfortunately, our transfer budget is a measly £136k. Therefore, so buy anyone, we first need to sell someone. Massimo is definitely going to be busy.

There’s two main upgrades I want to make, which I think are desperately needed:

A central defender who is a big upgrade on our current crop. He needs to be good in the air, strong and preferably able to help launch counter attacks. Looking at our central defenders’ stats from last season, you can see how absolutely average they are in the air. Only Jonas David was good aerially, winning 79% of headers he competed for. Ambrosius won 77% which is respectable, but I definitely need at least one CB who can win over 80%. Afterall, the wide players we’ll be facing in the Bundesliga will be much more talented and will fire crosses in with pin point accuracy.

I’m also going to be on the look out for a skilled #10. Our main strikers (Petersen and Glatzel) both lack elite pace and acceleration, but are good off the ball. Therefore, I need someone with the ability to unlock Bundesliga defences. Someone who can play in both the AMC and CM positions.

Sonny Kittel did a good job last season, notching up 5 goals and 15 assists. However, due to his lack of work rate (9), strength (7) and determination (9), I fear he’ll be too much of a luxury player. When facing up to a relegation battle, I can’t rely on a player, who isn’t willing to put the hard work in.

Outside of those two, if I can get an upgrade in the central midfield area I’ll be happy but it’s not yet a priority. I still believe that Ludovit Reis can develop into a talented midfielder, so I’m happy to give him as many minutes as possible. Especially as money is tight.

TRANSFERS

The transfer-action started off with an optimistic approach for central defender Dan-Axel Zagadou, who’s contract at Borussia Dortmund had expired. We even agreed a contract, which was the maximum I could offer as per the updated wage budgets (below). Unfortunately, he chose to move to Villareal instead. Annoyingly, he went there for £23,500 a week… less than the £28,950 I offered!

To further my frustrations, I then received an email from the board. They’d picked up the £3 million transfer option of Vuskovic’s load deal. He wasn’t a regular starter so I was leaning towards not making the deal permanent. Especially given we don’t even have £3 million to spend. On the upside, he’s a good young defender, who’s comfortable on the ball with plenty of progression left.

Here’s where having a wage structure makes things interesting. The perils of being promoted as Champions is that some of the more ambitious players want, well demand, more money. Both Leibold and Heyer soon came knocking with their new demands. Leibold, our starting left back last season, insisted on a new contract and wouldn’t accept less that £45k p/w. You can see from the below this is completely unrealistic. Even if I stretched to placate him, others would then want similar amounts. That’s how teams get into financial issues in the first place.

It won’t surprise you to hear that Leibold was allowed to leave when Wolfsburg approached with a £3.9m bid.

Heyer was more annoying for me. Although it wasn’t a regular starter last season, he can play as a centreback, wingback and defensive and central midfield. Those kinds of players can be very useful over a season (especially in the pre-World Cup congested fixture list). However, he wanted over £30k per week so we swiftly moved on to Stuttgart for £2.5 million.

Improving the defence

When looking at the squad comparison tool, our defence is very much below average in most areas, and the worst in concentration. Improvements here are desperately needed.

With over £6 million now raised through player sales, I sent new Director of Football, Massimo Taibi, to find me Leibold’s replacement at left wingback. The player he came back with fits the bill perfectly.

Moving to Germany in a deal worth £1.4 million, Federico Ricca should prove a very good addition. He spent the last three seasons with Club Brugge in Belgium, where he made 51 appearances. Great personality and very good defensively. Also, look at the aggression. Everyone needs a crazy South American in their team… right?

Next to come in is the strong, physical central defender I was talking about earlier. Someone who is comfortable on the ball enough to withstand some of the relentless pressing the Bundesliga offers. Dipping into my shortlist I saw that Bayern Munich had put Lukas Mai on the loan list so I swooped in to pick him up.

As you can see, he’s a great option and an upgrade on what I already have. He’s also on an expiring contract so I’m going to do my best to get him onside to increase the chances of accepting a contract offer to join permanently next season.

He likes to try long range passes, switch the ball to wide areas and brings the ball out of defence, which are all perfect for me.

Midfield: One out, one in

David Kinsombi was put on the transfer list and Malmo came in with a £2.5 million bid which was swiftly accepted. He was a bit part player last season so I’m delighted to get that much for him.

As mentioned earlier, I wanted a talented creator in midfield and Massimo Taibi came up with the goods, again, when he made a move to sign Joe Aribo from Rangers.

Outstanding technique and is able to create AND be a scoring threat. He’s more than strong enough to hold off defensive midfielders and has the work rate and stamina which Sonny Kittel lacks.

And how much did all this cost?

Just £2.6 million. As soon as he joined, his value shot up to around the £10 million mark.

I told you that Massimo Taibi at Director of Football could be the best signing of the season!

I have my reservations though. Two reservations to be precise. Firstly, Aribo doesn’t enjoy big games, of which there’s going to be a lot this season. Secondly, it appears his right foot seems to be purely for standing on. I’m sure his excellent technique will help him out but I’m worried his weak right foot might make him very predictable at this level. Will he get found out?

This means he might not be a long term option, however, if I can get a season or two out of him and then sell for a healthy profit I’ll be delighted.

Silence on the striker front. Almost.

Last season I was very happy with our attacking options. Petersen came in and scored 9 goals in 13 games. Glatzel and Jatta both performed steadily and Alidou showed lots of promise.

To make the most of Alidou’s progression I made the decision to send him out on loan so he can get some regular football. He’s joined rivals Werder Bremen, where I can then re-judge our striker situation when the window re-opens and recall him to the Bundesliga if needed. It may seem strange loaning him to a rival, but honestly, I want them to get promoted after they missed out in the playoff game last season, It’d be good to have them or St. Pauli in the same division to give us something to look forward to.

Of course, nothing runs smoothly and Glatzel, who scored 11 goals last season, came demanding an improved contract of nearly £40k per week. Naturally, we were unable to reach an agreement. As he’s an influential player in the locker room, I then felt the wrath of his team mates. After a few meetings, where I refused to back down, I’ve now got a few annoyed players. We’ll see if he lowers his expectations as the season progresses.

I did make an approach to sign Stuttgart striker Sasa Kalajdzic. The 6’7″ was transfer-listed, and a fee was agreed. Sadly, he chose Bournemouth instead for around £40k per week.

To my surprise, Petersen is 16-1 to be the top scorer! That’s shorter odds than you’d get for Robert Lewandowski! £230k amazingly well spent and proof you shouldn’t always rule out players over 30.

Final Bundesliga Squad

As you can see from the below, we have a very young squad, with only one player over the age of 30. Of course, this is a good thing in terms of the future of the team, however we may find the lack of experience hampers our Bundesliga campaign. Especially in tight games when our backs are against the wall.

I’ve also included a few promising youngsters in here who I’m hoping to be able to give some playing time to.

Youth intake

The latest youth intake looks like it could be quite promising. The four below are the pic of the bunch. Hubner should make a very good playmaker and is good in attack and defence. Kalus is a tough tackling midfielder, but needs work on his positioning. Avrameas is already 6’3″ despite being only 16 years old. Remmers is an all action midfielder with excellent stamina and tackling attributes. Hopefully all of them have what it takes to be Bundesliga players.

TACTICAL DECISIONS

The 5-2-1-2 formation served us well last year but the Bundesliga is a different level entirely and therefore tactical changes are needed.

It’ll be no shock to learn out our defence compares poorly to the rest of the league. Therefore, I’m going to continue to use three centre backs. At least for a while. I’ll monitor how they’re doing and see if I think they could cope in a back four.

In midfield I’ve added an anchor man role in the DM slot. Anchors protect the defence well and drop into the back line if a CB pushes up.

As we want to be counter-attacking, I’ve avoided using a Deep Lying Playmaker, in case this slows our transition down. Instead, I’ve opted for Aribo as an Advanced Playmaker.

Up front we’ve kept the Poacher role, which Petersen did so well in last season. I’ve initially opted to partner him with a False 9. This should allow Sonny Kittel to find space and be a threat. Hopefully the two central midfielders will be able to also get up to support the attack.

New signing, Lukas Mai, will fill the right centre back role. His trait of “bring the ball out of defence” should suit this well and will make opposition players commit, freeing others up. Then he, or the opposite WCB moves up-field, the Anchor will slot into their position. This will help retain defensive solidity.

The tactical future for the Bundesliga

I’ve decided to give this set up ten games to see how the team settles into life in the Bundesliga. I’d rather start more conservatively and get more adventurous if things are ok. If things aren’t going how I want, I can change things up by switching to my favoured 4-2-3-1.

Another reason for contemplating the tactical switch is that I have talented players who are natural wingers, especially coming through the ranks.

Like the defence, our midfield also ranks poorly in the squad comparison analysis. Playing wingers in a “three at the back” system inevitably means you can only have a two-man midfield. I don’t want to be overwhelmed in the centre of the pitch each week. The switch to a four man defence allows the security of a third man in midfield and be more assertive.

As mentioned in the first blog of this series, I want a tactic which best fits the players we have. If the switch to a 4-2-3-1 happens, I’ll dive into the detail in the next update. In the meantime, here’s how the two variations might look.

The preparation is complete. I’ve still got £3m in the bank but I want to keep that for the January transfer window. In the meantime, believe this team is good enough to avoid a Bundesliga relegation battle.